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02/02/2007: "Going All In"

OK, I've put this off as long as possible. The Big Game is Sunday, and I have to pick a winner.

Everybody - and I mean everybody - is picking the Colts to beat the Bears on Sunday. The line started out at over 7 points, and hasn't dropped below a touchdown yet. In point spread terms, that's a massacre. Can the game really be that one-sided?

It's really a tale of two match-ups, with a couple of wild cards tossed in. The Colts offense versus the Bears defense is strength on strength. They say defense wins championships, and the Bears squad is world-class, but I just don't see them holding back Peyton Manning all day.

When the ball is going the other way, it's just the opposite. You have two squads that have been iffy all season, and have been getting it done with smoke and mirrors during their playoff runs. The Bears have a solid run offense, but with Rex the Not-So-Wonder-Dog at QB, you never know when the wheels will fall off. It's not that he can't make the plays; rather, he trys to do too much and ends up making plays for the other guys. Meanwhile, the Colts defense languished near the bottom of the chart all season until suddenly righting the ship a couple of weeks back. But how long can that last? The squad that doesn't make the mistake gets the advantage.

That leaves the wild card - the special teams. The Bears have rookie returner Devin Hester and his 5 touchdowns, while the Colts have their offseason pickup, kicker Adam Vinatieri. I'm thinking that Hester can be neutralized somewhat by kick placement, while there's nothing that seems to stop Vinatieri. Give the edge to the Colts - barely.

In the end, it will be a closer game than predicted, but the Colts offense will wear down the Bears defense. Grossman and the Bears offense can help out if they can keep Peyton off the field, but in the end I think it's going to be too much Manning to Harrison.

Colts 34, Bears 20.