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02/06/2008: "What Did We Learn?"

Yesterday were the "Super Tuesday" primary elections or, as candidate Barack Obama put it, "Super Duper Tuesday". Super indeed, as nearly half the delegates for the parties' national nominating conventions were on the table. It was thought that a lot would be learned by the end of the day. But what did we really learn yesterday?

Let's start with what we didn't learn yesterday - the names of the final two candidates for President. Sure, John McCain took a big leap in the delegate counts, but he still has problems with a large part of his party, and neither of his two rivals appears to be going anywhere. On the Democratic side, Hillary won the big states as planned, but Obama made a surprisingly strong showing and is still nipping at her heels - and his campaign is clearly the one with momentum as we move forward.

Super Tuesday did teach us some things, though. We learned that both campaigns are liable to be settled not at the ballot box but on the convention floor. The Clinton campaign started out believing their candidate was pre-ordained as the Democratic nominee, and felt that by this point they'd have an overwhelming lead in delegates. If they didn't already know it - and they should have - they learned yesterday that Barack Obama is a serious challenger, and has a significant base of supporters that Hillary just doesn't reach. She has the women and hispanics, but Barack has the black and young voters - people who see him as someone like themselves. Clinton came away from yesterday's contests with a slight lead in delegates, but those came from three urban states - California, New York and Massachusetts. Obama's wins came from a larger number of smaller states. This one will turn on the remaining high-density states - Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. If Obama does well, Hillary could be in trouble.

Over on the Republican side of the circus, we learned that John McCain has legs as a candidate. He took nearly twice as many delegates yesterday as did Mitt Romney, who suddenly finds himself in a fight with Mike Huckabee for the conservative vote. McCain referred to himself as the "front runner" last night for the first time, and if Huckabee and Romney keep splitting the conservative vote it won't be long until McCain calls himself the "presumptive candidate". But the conservative drum-beaters continue to harp on McCain for perceived liberalism, and have said some amazingly stupid things in reference to his campaign (more in a minute). All things considered, though, McCain must be thrilled this morning.

We learned - or, more importantly, he learned - that Mitt Romney has a real problem if he wants to be President. Other than states where he has a home or a connection - or wasn't really challenged - Romney hasn't shown well. And with Mike Huckabee winning a handful of southern states, that's more delegates that Romney counted on winning that he doesn't have. He was pressuring Huckabee to pull out last week - Romney (who has sunk $17 million of his own cash into the campaign) might be the one to have to head to the sidelines.

One last thing we learned yesterday is just how rabid the conservative wing of the Republican Party really is, and just how silly some of the statements they make can be. If you read yesterday's entry, you know that I belong to the Grand Old Party. However, while I'm certainly right of center, I'm nowhere near as conservative as the talking heads that you hear pouring their vitriol out of your radio speakers. They've made no attempt to hide their disgust at the thought of having McCain as their candidate, apparently deciding to forget his many conservative positions and instead focus on his willingness to at least consider the ideas pondered by the Democrats. Frankly, I think the biggest challenge we as a country face is our inability to consider the other guy - that's why we're stuck in neutral as other countries like India, Brazil and China get their acts together and leave us in their wake.

Topping all the silly sentiments yesterday was one expressed by talk show and CNN host Glenn Beck. Beck likes to consider himself an "open minded" guy, and yet he made this enlightened statement: If John McCain is made the Republican nominee, he's voting for Hillary Clinton. WTF? Talk about cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. I can't imagine a dumber statement for a conservative "voice" to make. This just shows the blind singleminded idealism that these guys are showing - and it's just as bad (but maybe not so visibly stupid) on the other side. All the more reason to rally around a candidate - from either party - who can work with the other side to move the country forward.